Canada Finally to the Ballot Box?

Post 79 | Feelings, fealty and policy

“Events dear boy, events” is a quote with murky providence, but aptly describes how unexpected forces have shaped Canadian politics the past months.

If polls are to be even directionally trusted, we have lived through a year’s worth of political swings in just a few weeks - from the certainty of a crushing Conservative majority, to polls showing a potential Liberal win, now sliding back toward Conservative victory - but mostly in who the heck knows territory.

There are plenty of after-the-fact explanations for it including the initial Carney bump, NDP collapse, varying degrees of guessing about who can better deal with Trump, getting some peeks beneath heir-likely Mark Carney’s kimono, and the Liberal glow from displaying their newfound Canadian pride in battling tariffs. Can you imagine what is yet to come before an election is held?

While it could change in an instant, some are predicting an election call within weeks to have us at the polls before April ends. This is read from the tea leaves of a recent comment from Carney along with internal party chatter from some who claim to know. The most likely driver is the Liberals’ hope to ride the current polling bump before Carney’s halo tarnishes and Trumpian chaos further tanks economic numbers. But caveats are aplenty and only the innocent and uninformed believe opinion polls won’t ultimately determine when the notoriously self-interested Liberals drop the writ. And if the waning and poverty-stricken NDP get a last gasp at king-making glory, double goes for them. (Singh issued yet another spineless walkback caveat this week to hobble the chances of him forcing an election if Parliament resumes and the Liberals don’t pull the trigger themselves)

So the stark reality is we don’t know the when and the outcome remains a crapshoot. The one thing of which I’m certain is our next election will be decided mostly on feelings and party fealty and little on policy. Not a tough bet to make, as it’s usually the sorry case.

Worse yet, those feelings will revolve largely around Donald Trump and the tariff mess he’s initiated, guessing at who will be better in dealing with and managing his chaos - a mug’s game through and through. Allowing this to dominate our election will be a terrible mistake just as the 2021 vote was all about Covid, as people thought the world would forever be driven by a virus. So they voted for apparent safety and familiarity but mostly out of self-interest - as pockets were stuffed full with our own money the government splashed recklessly about.

Trump too shall pass even though it feels otherwise - and we’ll have to live with whatever government we elect notwithstanding who we think can best take on King Donald.

2021 was an awful decision. Not only was Liberal management of Covid horribly bungled, but once passed it left us bereft of proper leadership based on strong principles, clear vision and solid policies. We thus wasted another four years chasing idealist fantasies rather than building our country - something even the least engaged have come to realize.

And while we hear talk of wanting policy platforms from the parties before making a choice, the very fact we’ve seen such massive polling swings amidst a drought of concrete policy announcements confirms for me that policy matters little to most. Feelings dominate. And such is the pity.

Readers know I have disagreed with this government on almost every matter of principle and policy since Trudeau took office. Carney now represents their next golden boy hoping to save a crumbling party, just as Trudeau did a decade ago. This time is even more precarious as they perch him atop a party in worse shape than 2013 - wholly confused of their principles, badly conflicted in their newly floated policy positions and with a decadal millstone of failure slung about their neck.

New policy positions belching forth from the leadership race are so at odds with the past ten years of demonstrated bad governance that voters will need the faith of saints, delusion of children and memory of the dead to entrust them with more than a local rummage sale, never mind again put our country in their hands.

And they have killed any vestige of trust and goodwill by shutting down our government during the worst possible time as they prioritized their party’s interests over Canada’s.

I have little positive to say of Carney in his soon-to-be coronated role as our Prime Minister. He is the wrong man, with the wrong beliefs and instincts, with the wrong party for what currently faces this country.

You can find two of my related writings in this recent Note on Carney and in the below article.

Carney's Carbon Tax Head Fake

Subsequent to publishing those, I discovered this head shaker which makes my article on his new carbon plan pale in comparison.

"For example, Canada must invest $2 trillion by 2050—about $80 billion per year— to become carbon competitive and achieve Net Zero. However, investments in decarbonisation currently run between $10–20 billion annually."

https://markcarney.ca/spend-less-invest-more ~ February 2025

You read that right. After ten years of demonstrated fiscal, energy, green economy, immigration and domestic policy malfeasance from the Liberals, Carney claims he will lead this very same party under a new religion discovered overnight. And if that alone doesn’t beggar belief, he then proposes we still must spend $2,000,000,000,000 on Net Zero over the next 25 years. Presumably this will be plopped in the invest versus spend bucket Mark is differentiating just as Trudeau feigned, though it will bankrupt us equally.

This circle does not square - and only delusion, incompetence or misdirection can explain it.

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The Conservatives are in their own pickle. Against a government that is shut down and leaderless they are wrestling smoke, unable to be The Opposition to anyone, which is their official role in Parliament. They are also struggling to make the transition from critique to vision, as events conspire against them.

They are sidelined during arguably the most important economic-geopolitical event to hit Canada…ever? - and can only watch as the Liberals wrap themselves in the flag and do a reasonable job in the parry-and-thrust with Trump, while gaining a sympathetic audience. Having the podium during a crisis is worth more than any millions in advertising, as Doug Ford masterfully demonstrated in last month’s Ontario election.

After Sunday’s new Liberal PM is airlifted in place the House needn’t return until March 24. Even then, Carney won’t be subject to Question Period scrutiny because he can’t take a seat in the House as a non-MP and will thus avoid direct fire, though receive a shellacking in absentia. If he calls an election prior to prorogue ending then he can’t be accused of hiding but we’ll still never see him suffer the indignities of defending his guilty posse through anything but antiseptic events and whatever horribly moderated debates are agreed upon.

It nauseates me to suggest, but the Liberals and their new leader may yet escape accountability for the past decade of Canada’s decline and skate through the election telling new fantasies to a gullible electorate - aided by a crisis that offers a bully pulpit in support of an enraged country. The irony will be lost on many that most of our rage should be directed at our own government while they conveniently pin all their past sins on Trump’s tariff stupidity, notwithstanding the additional wrecking ball it will become.

How the Conservatives tip toe through this minefield will be critical. They must shift to their Canada-building and happy path phase or be tarred with an anti-Canadian brush - yet simultaneously litigate the past to battle against electoral amnesia. How darkly tragic if the party who awoke the country to our great perils is relegated to the role of heel.

And Poilievre will have to fight the Trump battles. How he hews to conservative principles and policies while not being tarred with ridiculous comparisons to the shmuck south of us will be tricky. And how he can wedge himself into the mix on the tariff discussion while the Liberals hog the spotlight will be challenging, with Parliament not sitting.

Given that I support maximal tariff response and unrelenting pressure on Trump, I generally applaud the structural response of our federal and provincial governments (atta boy Doug Ford for his pugnacious leadership), while disgusted that Trudeau remains our performative face. But what comes next is where the Conservatives will have both challenge and opportunity.

As written in Domestic Tariff Plan is Covid Redux we know the federal response will be to again flood us with cash, currying favour with self-interested voters. Offering unique and measured support aimed at businesses while tempering electorate pocket-stuffing may be the Conservative’s trickiest issue to navigate in the coming weeks. If they agree to Covid-like spending they’ll destroy their fiscal bona fides. Yet push back too hard and be labeled a dog-in-the-manger unwilling to have our backs, to use the saccharine Liberal lingo.

Domestic Tariff Plan is Covid Redux

The Conservatives have a lot of kryptonite in their pocket, however - not just recasting how the Liberals governed us into our weakened state. More constructively, they have been consistently defining the correct direction, vision and policies for our country and not selling their soul at the last moment for political expediency. They must play up this consistency - highlighting positions previously scoffed at that have suddenly become fashionable and now co-opted under a Liberal banner, despite their pissing on our flag for ten years.

But wait - don’t we hear the Conservatives have been tearing down our country while offering nothing but slogans? Hogwash. Poilievre is correct to call this out as gaslighting - as though to critique terrible governance is unpatriotic. And there is far more then catchy slogans for anyone paying attention.

Quoting from Ready for a Conservative Government,

One of the more popular charges leveled at the Conservatives is their lack of detailed policy disclosure and over reliance on slogans. I find this newfound interest in policy darkly amusing from a population largely uninterested for years - unless policy scrutiny means simply asking how much more money will be spent. This same population has cared little about budgets - those documents that turn policy promises into reality - as they’ve dripped in a decade of red ink. And leanness of policy disclosure has been kvetched about at some point in nearly every election cycle.

Reality is that few ever download the voluminous policy platforms released after election kick off, never mind plumb their depths. Even then they’d find mostly broad brush and promissory descriptions with details often in modest supply and creative costing that rarely survives first contact with reality. But rest assured, prior to an election we’ll have plenty of bedtime reading as parties upload their respective tomes, populate websites and drop off mailbox pamphlets.

Even still, I propose that high level vision is more useful and accessible than detailed policy for most - though the sadder reality is that many just vote based on a feeling or who they like.

What followed in that article was a summary of the Conservative vision and policies as I understood them. Since then, they have announced additional specifics on spending controls, tax relief, military growth, northern security, pipeline development and various social policy intentions. Indeed a detailed and costed election policy platform has not yet been published…because an election call has not been made.

But the Conservatives do have a written policy document I neglected to highlight.

Following their September 2023 policy convention, this Conservative Party Policy Document was updated and published. It is a statement of principles and positions, mostly directional but clear and direct. The document is not easy to find on their website and that’s a pity, because it provides the vision and policy structures that detractors have been shouting for.

It runs 58 pages outlining 23 Principles, each with subsections of one or more paragraphs, totaling 189 sections.

In Jerry Maguire fashion, they had me at…

The Conservative Party believes the role of government is to:

• protect the lives and property of its citizens;

• ensure equality of opportunity;

• foster an environment where individuals and private initiative can prosper;

• ensure the security of our nation’s borders and the safety of our citizens at home and abroad;

• provide services to Canadians that cannot be provided more efficiently and effectively by individuals or by the private sector; and

• maintain and enhance national infrastructure

Dozens of items then jumped out in the ensuing 58 pages, addressing issues about which I’ve written or endorse and often in stark contrast to what we’ve just lived through. Reviewing them here will be far too lengthy and cherry picking will do an injustice - in areas of government accountability, justice reform, spending controls, energy policy, electoral reform, sensible environment policy and much more. So I urge you to scan the document yourself and read their principles, frameworks, commitments and directions for Canada.

Here it is again. Come back and click the link when you’re finished the article.

Conservative Party Policy Document

Okay…you’re not going to click the link and read boring policy statements, right? Maybe outlining the main headings will interest you to dig in.

• Role of Government

• Government Accountability

• Democratic Reform

• Open Federalism

• Fiscal

• Economic Development

• Trade

• Transportation

• Environment

• Health

• Social Policy

• Indigenous Affairs

• Criminal Justice

• Communications

• Celebrating Canada’s Diversity

• Canadian Heritage and Culture

• Rural Canada

• Agriculture

• Fisheries

• Immigration and Refugee

• Foreign Affairs

• National Defence & Security

• Strong Democracy - Ongoing Policy Development

Most noticeable is a consistency of this document with vision and policies we are now hearing. These are not twelfth hour conversions or positions of convenience to cheaply snag your vote, but a genuine drumbeat based on party principles affirmed and updated following their selection of a new leader in 2022. No doubt, current events will amplify some and defocus others, but they mostly hold to what we have been hearing as their plans for Canada.

Not everything aligns for me, yet it is a pragmatic platform recognizing geo-political realities of Canada. I would love to wave a magic wand and eliminate supply management, enact electoral and Senate reform, modify the equalization formula, force through energy projects and more. But some of these areas will continue to experience tensions or require multiple Conservative administrations to properly tackle, no matter how much we wish otherwise.

What I see in this policy document, however, is an outline for key areas and positions on which a serious country should be governed. Long overdue.

Voters will never entirely set aside self-interest or partisanship. Nor dig deep on policy. But it boggles me who can ponder the last ten years then blindly follow party fealty, or choose based on feelings of likability projected on a new face at the top of a demonstrably failed government.

When we eventually see the full party platforms I hope voters read them, then question who has stayed true to their principles and vision and who changed sides only when the bullets starting flying. Who then deserves trust?

Along with pondering why we are in our current state of disarray, vote on more than a feeling.

Stay tuned and stay pragmatic.